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Panorama Of Chinese Manufacturing: Who Is Growing, Who Is Maturing, Who Is In Decline ... Mar 20, 2018

The industry's infancy, like the period from birth to infancy, is "new from head to toe": the scientific concept of incubation for the technical prototype, the application of technology has created a new industry. The early days of the industry, research and development costs higher, technology is immature, and the market for the lack of understanding of products, so that the market demand for small, low sales income, scale is not economic, so in the early stage of the enterprise, financial may not be profitable, and even a larger loss. If there are no big companies to buy or venture capital, only a handful of these start-ups will survive.


When the industry entered the embryonic stage, with the technology matures, the cost gradually reduced, the application scope and market demand gradually expanded, the industry gradually into long-term. The growth period of the industry is like the development stage of people from adolescence to youth: the early stage of growth, the application of technology from demonstration to marketization and scale. Growth in the medium term, the market gradually recognized and accepted the new products, product sales rapid growth, gradually expand the market, corporate income growth is very fast, but also invest a lot of capital expenditure to achieve high-speed growth. Although the enterprise profit growth is very fast at this stage, but the competition risk is also very big, invests in the new industry the manufacturer to increase massively, enters the intense price competition stage. In the later period of growth, enterprises not only rely on expanding production and increasing market share to gain competitive advantage, but also need to continuously improve the technical level, reduce costs and develop new products, so as to overcome or keep abreast of competitors and maintain enterprise survival. The intense industry competition makes the enterprise bankrupt rate and the annexation rate very high, after the survival of the fittest industry concentration degree increases greatly, after stable at a certain level.


As the market demand saturation, the industry income growth began to decline, the growth of enterprises began to slow down, the entire industry began to enter a mature period. The maturity of the industry, like a man's prime and middle age, the industry's maturity is also a relatively long period of time: the technical application of the market and scale has been completed, permeability gradually saturated, the growth of the industry gradually disappeared, the industry's income growth to a modest level, capital expenditure growth rate continued to decline. The competition pattern of the whole market is in a stable condition for a long period of time, and the competition between enterprises turns into the price-non-price means, such as improving the quality, improving the performance and strengthening the service. Industry profits also because of a certain degree of monopoly reached a higher level, and risk because the market structure is stable, new enterprises are difficult to enter and reduce.


At the end of the mature period, some industries are beginning to enter a recession, and some industries may also welcome new high-speed growth due to various reasons such as technological innovation, industrial policy or globalization. The decline of the industry, just like people into old age, is an objective necessity: the recession does not necessarily mean the demise of the industry, in many cases the recession is often longer than the sum of the first three stages, a large number of industries are declining and not dead, and even coexist with human society. In general, the recession in the High-tech sector lasts a relatively short period of time, and the downturn in the utilities sector lasts longer. When the industry begins to enter the recession, there will be a short-term imbalance, that is, short-term overcapacity, but there is no long-term surplus problem, overcapacity is static concept, industrial and economic development is always dynamic. As the industry plunged into recession, the market contracted, and some companies began to shift to more lucrative sectors, with fewer businesses, less industry revenues and profits, or falling into recession.